'First, the non-climatic effects of carbon dioxide are dominant over the climatic effects and are overwhelmingly beneficial. Second, the climatic effects observed in the real world are much less damaging than the effects predicted by the climate models, and have also been frequently beneficial.'

Freeman Dyson,

in Foreword to http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/10/benefits1.pdf

Friday, 25 January 2013

Climate Scaremongering: teach your children to ‘look and laugh at a’that’, with Robbie Burns

'Ye see yon birkie, ca'd Al Gore, Wha struts, an' stares, an' a' that;
Tho' thoosands worship at his lore,
He's but a coof for a' that:
For a' that, an' a' that,
His Nobel Prize, an' a' that:
The man o' independent mind

He looks an' laughs at a' that.'

With apologies to R. Burns (http://www.robertburns.org/works/496.shtml)

Dramatic tales of doom are sure-fired ways of getting attention.  Until people see through them.  We have the perspective gained from many elapsed years since these resource-focused alarms were raised (compiled by David B Mustard) :

In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that England’s factories would grind to a standstill.

In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California.

In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas. ..

In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years.

[In] 1944 [a] federal government review predicted that by now the US would have exhausted its reserves of 21 of 41 commodities it examined. Among them were tin, nickel, zinc, lead and manganese.

In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight.

We have some on climate from the early 1970s to chuckle at:

Claim Jan. 1970: "By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half." Life Magazine, January 1970. Life Magazine also noted that some people disagree, "but scientists have solid experimental and historical evidence to support each of the predictions."
Data: Air quality has actually improved since 1970. Studies find that sunlight reaching the Earth fell by somewhere between 3 and 5 percent over the period in question.
Claim April 1970: "If present trends continue, the world will be ... eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age." Kenneth E.F. Watt, in Earth Day, 1970.
 Data: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1970.

 Claim 1970: "In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Paul Ehrlich, speech during Earth Day, 1970.
[Data: gone fishin']

Claim 1972: "Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000." Christian Science Monitor, June 8, 1972.
 Data: Ice coverage has fallen, though as of last month, the Arctic Ocean had 3.82 million square miles of ice cover -- an area larger than the continental United States -- according to The National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Claims 1974: "... when metereologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age. Telltale signs are everywhere--from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice int eh waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data fro the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadia Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round."
    Later in the article, "Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth's surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years."
    Source: "Another Ice Age," Time Magazine, June 24, 1974. 

And here are some more recent ones:
Claim 1989: "Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010." Associated Press, May 15, 1989.
Data: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1989. And U.S. temperature has increased even less over the same period.

Claim: [1990] "[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots ... [By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers." Michel Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle, Dead Heat, St. Martin's Press, 1990. Oppenheimer is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Geosciences at Princeton University. He is the Director of the Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy at the Wilson School. He was formerly a senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund, the largest non-governmental organization in the U.S. that examines problems and solutions to greenhouse gases.

Claims: [2000]"Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives."
    "Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and ... are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters--which scientists are attributing to global climate change--produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries."
    "London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991." "Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community."
    According to Dr. David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years "children just aren't going to know what snow is" and winter snowfall will be "a very rare and exciting event." Interviewed by the UK Independent, March 20, 2000.
    "David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow."
    See "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past." The Independent. March 20, 2000.
Data: "Coldest December Since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10 C bringing travel chaos across Britain." Mailonline. Dec. 18, 2010.

But what of our times?  We have an embarassment of riches when it comes to illustrating the arrogant and dangerous follies of modern alarmists.  The C3 website has been gathering links, very often to peer reviewed-literature, refuting or otherwise showing the incompetence of climate models and sundry claims designed to alarm us.  I have pulled out a couple of hundred topics from the list there.  The alarmists and their models have been shown to be wrong in their predictions for each of them.  Often several times over.

Abrupt Climate Changes, Aerosols, African Eco-Climate, African River Flows, Africa's Daily High Temps, Africa's Lake Victoria Basin's Climate, Africa's Mosquito Population, Alps Plant Species, Amazon and Higher CO2 Levels, Amazon Droughts/Floods, Amazon For The Last 7 Decades, Amazon Threats, Antarctic Ice, Antarctic Ice Melt, Antarctic Ozone Hole, Antarctic species and Ocean Acidification, Antarctic Warming, Arctic Climate, Arctic Ice, Arctic Melt Season Length, Arctic Species, Asian Precipitation, Asia's Rivers, Atlantic Ocean Circulation Slowdown, Atlantic Ocean Current and Greenland Ice, Atmosphere Temperatures, Atmospheric Methane, Atmospheric Water Vapour, Australia Great Barrier Reef, Australia Great Barrier Reef's Health, Australia Sea Level Increases, Australia Severe Cyclones, Australia Severe Weather, Australian Drought, Avalanches, Bangladesh Losing Land, Bering Sea Warming, Biodiversity and Warming, Bird Extinctions, Boiling Oceans, Canada Forest Fires In Ontario, Central Europe Temperatures, Central Siberian Forest Fires, China Extreme Rain Events, China Hail Storm Frequency, China Snow, Vegetation & Deserts, China Tropical Cyclones, China's Medieval Warming Period, Chinese Precipitation Variations, Climate Refugees, Cloud Coverage, Cloud Impact On Temperatures, Coastal Species and Warming, Coastal Swamping, Cooling of Major Ocean Areas, Cooling Since 1995, Coral Reefs and CO2,Coral Reefs and Warming, Crop Failure & Starvation, Crop Health, Current Climate Observations, Cyclone Activity, Death Rates and Warming, Desert Areas Expansion, Disaster Losses, Diurnal Trends, Droughts, El Niño/La Niña Phases, Europe Southern Rainfall Variability, European severe weather, European Snowfall, Extreme Climate Events Since 1970, Extreme Precipitation Events, Finland Floods and Droughts, Fish and Ocean Acidification, Flood frequencies, Flood Predictions, Florida Reefs Warming, Food Crop Prospects, Forest Fire Incidents, Frogs and Warming, German Flooding, Global Ocean Warming, Global Precipitation, Global Sea Level Rise, Global Snowpack Levels, Global Temperatures, Greenland and AMO Variability, Greenland Ice Sheet Stability, Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass, Greenland Modern Ice Loss, Greenland's Glaciers, Hay Fever & Asthma, Heavy Precipitation Events, High Wind Storms, Himalaya Severe Rainfall, Himalayan Glaciers, Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Landfall, Hurricane or Cyclone frequency, Hurricanes, Ice Sheets Collapse, Illnesses, Increased Mudslides, India past 135 Years of Rainfall, Indian Ocean levels, Indian Rainfall, Infectious Diseases, Infrared Radiation, Intensity of Hailstorms, Japan Precipitation, Malaria Incidence, Malaria Regions, Maldives & Other Reef Islands, Maldives Sea Levels, Marine Life & Diversity,Marine Life and Warming, Max/Min Daily Temperatures, Methane Gas "Tipping Point", Methane Levels, Minimum Temperatures, Mountain Rabbits, Mud & Debris Slides, Namib Desert Greatest Floods, New Zealand Cooling, Northern Hemisphere Snow, Northern Hemisphere's Wind Reduction, Ocean Acidification, Ocean Acidification & Marine Life, Ocean Conveyor Belt, Ocean Cooling, Ocean Heat Content, Ocean Temperatures, Ocean Warming, Ozone, Ozone In Wealthy Countries, Pacific Islands Disappearing , Pacific Ocean Variability, Peat Bogs, Permafrost Behaviour, Positive Feedback, Precipitation Trends, Rainfall, River Discharge Volumes, Sea 'Dead Zone’,Sea Ice Growth Over Decades, Sea Level Increase Rate, Sea Level Over Last Decade,Severe Droughts Over Last 40 years, Severe Floods, Severe Hurricane Incidents, Severe Storms, Severe Tropical Cyclones, Severe Weather, Severe Windstorms, Shellfish and CO2, Siberian High Climatic Condition, Siberian-Arctic Tundra, Snowfall and Warming,Southern Africa Rainfall, Southern Hemisphere Cyclones, Species Extinctions, Spread of Malaria, Tasmanian Ocean Reefs, Tornados, Tree Lines, Tropical Cyclones and Warming, Tropical Fish and Warming, Tropical Hotspot, Tundra, Tundra Greenhouse Gas, UK Thames River Barrier, USA  Cooling, USA California Mountain Snowfall, USA Canada Great Lakes' Water Levels, USA Canada Rocky Mountains Over Last 50+ Years, USA Cascade Mtns. Snowpack, USA Cooling, USA Droughts For Southwest, USA Droughts In Utah, USA Eastern Severe Winter Storms, USA Flooding, USA Eastern Flooding, USA Hawaii's Extreme Weather Events, USA Maple Syrup Industry, USA Mississippi River Floods, USA Temperatures Since 1900, USA Temps In 2008, USA Winter, Vegetation Growth, Water Vapour Feedback, Wildfires, Winter Precipitation, World's Plant Life

For more information, search here: http://www.c3headlines.com/bad-predictions-failed.html

Wednesday, 23 January 2013

May the Right Climate Stuff Team Drive the Wrong Climate Stuff from our Schools

The Right Climate Stuff (TRCS) research team is a volunteer group of more than 20 scientists and engineers who are primarily retired veterans of NASA's manned space programme.  Here is an interim report from their ongoing study into climate:.

1. The science that predicts the extent of Anthropogenic Global Warming is not settled science.

 2. There is no convincing physical evidence of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Most of the alarm regarding AGW results from output of unvalidated computer models. We understand scientific arguments regarding how doubling CO2 in the atmosphere over a hundred years or more (if possible) can have a small direct warming effect, but we question the accuracy of feedback simulations in current models computing climate system responses that amplify CO2 effects. Efforts to estimate climate sensitivity to CO2 based solely on physical data have large uncertainties because many factors affect global temperatures, and CO2 levels rise in the atmosphere after the earth warms due to other factors. While paleoclimate data clearly show CO2 levels rise and fall in the atmosphere hundreds of years after temperature rises and falls due to other causes, the evidence is very weak to support claims of a catastrophic rise in global temperatures caused by CO2 emissions related to human activity.

 3. Computer models need to be validated before being used in critical decision-making.

Our manned aerospace backgrounds in dealing with models of complex phenomena have convinced us that this rule must be followed to avoid decisions with serious unintended consequences.

 4. Because there is no immediate threat of global warming requiring swift corrective action, we have time to study global climate changes and improve our prediction accuracy.

While there are many benefits due to some global warming, the major threats appear to be associated with a net loss of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet mass that would contribute to a gradual sea-level rise. The history, current trends, and specific causes of ice sheet melting and ice accumulation by precipitation must be better understood before determining how best to respond to threats of accelerated sea-level rise.

 5. Our US government is over-reacting to concerns about Anthropogenic Global Warming.

More CO2 in the atmosphere would be beneficial for forest and crop growth to support the earth's growing population, so control of CO2 emissions is not an obvious best solution to hyped-up concerns regarding AGW. Eventually the earth will run out of fossil fuels and alternative energy sources will be required. Market forces will (and should) play a big role in this transition to alternative energy sources. Government funding of promising research and development objectives for alternative fuels appears to be a better option at this time than expenditures of enormous resources to limit CO2 emissions.

 6. A wider range of solution options should be studied for global warming or cooling threats from any credible cause.

CO2 effectiveness in controlling global average temperatures or sea levels has not been established. More reliable and greater control authority may be available from engineering solutions that would accommodate the beneficial aspects of more CO2 in the atmosphere.

Source:  http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/SummaryPrelimReport.html

Hat-tip: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/23/team-of-ex-nasa-scientists-concludes-no-imminent-threat-from-man-made-co2/ 


These are the words of level-headed adults working with no ulterior motives to critically review the shoddy structures and ill-founded strictures of CO2 alarmism.  That same alarmism promoted for decades by a mix of decidedly un-level-headed adults and also sundry schemers with ulterior motives.  They have also promoted it to children, often with the use of scare-stories.  It will take a while to clear up the worst of that mess, but these ex-NASA folks are doing their bit to help.  Well done them!


Background: The Right Climate Stuff (TRCS) research team is a volunteer group of more than 20 scientists and engineers who are primarily retired veterans of our manned space program. We began our investigation into the controversial issue of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) in February 2012. We have reviewed, studied and debated available data and scientific reports regarding many factors that affect temperature variations of the earth's surface and atmosphere. We have also studied the well-documented beneficial, as well as potentially detrimental effects, of more CO2 in our atmosphere. This report provides a summary of findings that we have reached at this point into our investigation.

Note added 5 February 2013. An anonymous commenter (oh the irony) below has pointed out that most of the people involved in the Right Climate Stuff venture have not been named.  I can find only three names: Jim Peacock (Webmaster, NASA retired aerospace engineer),James Visentine (NASA Alumni League, Curator and Webmaster, TRCD Database), and Thomas Wysmuller (Meteorologist, former NASA employee).  It still looks plausibly genuine, especially given those three people were signatories of the open letters about climate by 49/50 ex NASA people last year, but readers may want to be careful about taking Right Climate Stuff too seriously until more becomes known about them.

Note added 12 March 2012.  More background on the Right Climate Stuff group here:  http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/03/12/retired-nasa-scientists-enter-climate-change-fray/